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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Oil Price Spike on Libya Violence Highest Gas Prices in February Since 1990

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Highest Gas Prices in February Since 1990, Attributed to Libya Turmoil

Unrest in The Middle East Affects Global Supplies


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Weekly gas prices skyrocketed, according to the Department of Energy, driven by the popular revolts spreading across the Middle East. 

The U.S. weekly average price per gallon is $3.19, up 54 cents from a year ago, and slightly higher than last week's $3.14. This was the highest price posted during the month of February since 1990, when the data became available. The most expensive regions again are 

New England at $3.23 and California at $3.56.

Oil settled at $93.57 in New York trading, up 8.5 percent since Friday's close, the biggest one day jump in nearly three years.
Daniel O'Connell, vice president of energy at MF Global, said he does not suspect gas and oil prices to continue to accelerate for very long.

"It's going way up way too fast," said O'Connell. "We're not going to break any new level as far as $94 is concerned. I suspect it will return to that $88 range sooner than later."

And why are gas prices going up?

"In a word: Libya," says petroleum expert Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. He has been following gas prices one way or another for more than 30 years.

As protests seemed to subside in Egypt, anti-government unrest continued in Bahrain and Libya. In a speech today, defiant Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi said he maintains control of the country despite the spread of anti-government protests from the city of Benghazi to the capital, Tripoli, yesterday.

Unlike Egypt and Bahrain, Lipow says, Libya is a significant exporter of light sweet crude.

Most of that gets exported to Europe: Italy, Germany, France and Spain. So, how does it affect the United States? We import 40 percent of our crude from Europe, refine it, and then export back to them the distillates, including gasoline and diesel. So, any disruption in Europe gets felt in the 50 states.

"You hear that we import a lot of crude," says Lipow. "And yes, we import about 9 million barrels a day. But less than 1 percent of that comes from Libya. What the oil market is worried about now is, we've seen unrest spread throughout the Middle East -- Morocco, Algeria, Tunis, Egypt. What if that should spread to Saudi Arabia, which accounts for 9 percent of the world's supply? They are the supplier of 11 percent of our crude oil. The market is worried about that supply being disrupted."

Oil prices jumped above $93 a barrel in Asia today amid fears the violent protests in Libya could disrupt crude oil supplies. Weekly gas prices are expected to be released later this afternoon.

"Oil hates uncertainty. It hates political turmoil," says John Hoffmeister, CEO of Citizens for Affordable Energy and the former president of Shell Oil. "And traders will be having customers buy it as quickly as they can to lock in supplies, and that drives the price up."

Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore, says fears that the turbulence spreading across the Arab world would shut down oil production are most likely unfounded, but they are still having an effect on prices.

"It's unlikely we're going to see any meaningful disruption of oil from the Middle East or North Africa, but the spread of this unrest has raised anxieties," Shum tells The Associated Press.

Over the next seven to 10 days, says Lipow, the U.S. consumer is going to see rising prices -- almost immediately. That's because there's not a lot of lag time when it comes to pricing. 


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